Default Dead or Alive?
Cash Runway Calculator

Paul Graham, co-founder of Y Combinator, posed a simple but brutal question every founder should be able to answer: "Assuming your expenses remain constant and your revenue growth is what it has been over the last several months, do you make it to profitability on the money you have left?" If the answer is yes, you are Default Alive. If no, you are Default Dead.

For eCommerce and CPG brands, this question is especially critical. Your cost structure is layered: COGS, marketing spend, fulfillment, payment processing, commissions, agencies, and payroll all compete for the same pool of cash. Revenue may be growing, but if your variable costs scale faster than your margins improve, growth itself can accelerate your death spiral.

This calculator projects your cash balance 24 months into the future using your actual numbers. It separates variable costs (which grow with revenue) from fixed costs (which stay constant), so you can see exactly when—and whether—you cross into profitability. Most founders are surprised by the result.

The math is simple. The implications are not. If you are Default Dead, you need to either raise capital, cut expenses, or improve unit economics before the clock runs out. If you are Default Alive, the question becomes: how much faster can you get there?