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The Eightx DTC Input-Cost Index · Live · updated August 17, 2026

Your product costs are climbing. See how much — and what it's doing to your margin.

As of July 2026, DTC input costs are up +7.2% to +23.1% year over year depending on category, driven mainly by freight and tariffs rather than the goods themselves. Pick your category below to see yours.

Apparel & accessories input costs are +11.0% vs last year with tariffs and firming.

Your apparel is roughly flat (+0.4% YoY); the real squeeze is ocean freight (+24.6%) plus tariffs. Lever: Push on freight, diversify sourcing to cut tariff exposure, then reprice — not your factory.

At $50M revenue and 40% COGS, about 4.4 gross-margin points — roughly $2.2M/yr — gone unless you reprice.
Talk to a CFO about protecting your margin →
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100119138now▸ ForecastMay '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~132 by December 2026 (+3.2% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↗ Firming
Cotton (global) +12%Crude oil (WTI) -20%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — apparel

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical apparel brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Ocean freight15%+24.6%
Truckload10%+17.6%
Last-mile parcel17%+10.1%
Cartons & polybags8%+6.9%
Synthetics & resin8%+2.3%
Apparel42%+0.4%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100122144now▸ ForecastJul '25Jul '26Jan '27
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~138 by January 2027 (+0.9% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Natural gas +6%Aluminum (global) +2%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — beauty

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical beauty brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Ocean freight8%+34.2%
Last-mile parcel17%+8.6%
Plastic bottles & pumps14%+6.8%
Truckload8%+8.1%
Formulation & fill34%+1.7%
Cartons & inserts7%+6.0%
Glass packaging12%+3.2%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100119137now▸ ForecastMay '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~132 by December 2026 (+1.4% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Aluminum (global) +2%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — supplements

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical supplements brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Truckload12%+17.6%
Ocean freight8%+24.6%
Last-mile parcel17%+10.1%
Bottles & caps15%+6.0%
Cartons & labels8%+6.9%
Actives & ingredients34%+1.1%
Glass packaging6%+2.9%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100137175now▸ ForecastMay '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~163 by December 2026 (+2.0% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Aluminum (global) +2%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — hard goods

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical hard goods brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Steel & metal26%+27.9%
Ocean freight18%+24.6%
Truckload14%+17.6%
Last-mile parcel16%+10.1%
Cartons & packaging8%+6.9%
Plastics & resin18%+2.3%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100119138now▸ ForecastJun '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~132 by December 2026 (+1.7% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Cotton (global) +12%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — footwear

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical footwear brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Ocean freight15%+24.6%
Last-mile parcel22%+10.1%
Truckload10%+17.6%
Footwear45%+2.9%
Boxes & packaging8%+6.9%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100119138now▸ ForecastMay '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~132 by December 2026 (+2.0% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Aluminum (global) +2%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — electronics

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical electronics brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Electronics40%+8.0%
Ocean freight13%+24.6%
Truckload10%+17.6%
Last-mile parcel17%+10.1%
Cartons & inserts8%+6.9%
Plastics & housings12%+2.3%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100136171now▸ ForecastMay '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~160 by December 2026 (+1.9% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Aluminum (global) +2%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — furniture

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical furniture brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Metal frames22%+27.9%
Ocean freight22%+24.6%
Truckload14%+17.6%
Last-mile parcel14%+10.1%
Cartons & packaging8%+6.9%
Foam & plastics20%+2.3%
Cost index — 13-month actual & 6-month forecast (2020 = 100)
100126151now▸ ForecastJun '25Jun '26Dec '26
Actual cost index Our forecast Likely range (80%)
Forecast: ~144 by December 2026 (+1.5% over 6 months). Our leading-indicator model projects the index forward from FX, energy, freight and commodity moves plus recent momentum, mean-reverting; the shaded band is the likely range (80%). Directional, refreshed monthly — not a guarantee.
Where it's heading · next ~1 quarter↘ Softening
Crude oil (WTI) -20%Aluminum (global) +2%US dollar (broad) +1%
Leading inputs over the last 3 months that haven't fully hit the index yet (FX, energy, commodities). A directional nowcast from free FRED series — not a backtested forecast.

Where the squeeze is — pet

Your cost stack, biggest movers first. "% of cost" is its share in a typical pet brand; "vs last year" is the change in that input's own price (before tariffs).

Input% of costvs last year
Last-mile parcel22%+10.1%
Truckload12%+17.6%
Ocean freight8%+24.6%
Bottles & containers14%+6.0%
Cartons & bags10%+6.9%
Food & ingredients34%+1.0%

Questions DTC operators ask

How much have DTC input costs risen in 2026?

As of July 2026, landed input costs for direct-to-consumer brands are up +7.2% to +23.1% year over year depending on category: apparel +11.0%, beauty +7.2%, supplements +9.3%, hard goods +23.1%, footwear +12.2%, electronics +13.3%, furniture +21.9%, pet +8.7%.

What is driving DTC cost-of-goods inflation in 2026?

Mostly freight and the 2025-26 tariffs, not the goods themselves. Imported goods prices before duty are roughly flat, while inbound ocean and truckload freight are up 16-21% and last-mile parcel about 13%, with Section 232 and reciprocal tariffs adding to landed cost.

Which DTC category has the highest input-cost inflation?

Hard goods & home, up +23.1% landed year over year as of July 2026, driven by imported metals (Section 232 tariffs) and freight-heavy shipping.

Where are DTC input costs heading next?

Leading indicators point to continued upward pressure: over the last three months crude oil rose about 58%, retail diesel about 50%, cotton about 24% and aluminum about 19% — moves that typically reach landed cost over the following one to three months.

How we built this & sources

Each category is its own weighted basket. Offshore-sourced goods use BLS import price indexes (the price US importers actually pay at customs, before tariffs) — apparel, chemicals & resin, pharmaceutical/medicine and primary metals. Packaging (glass, plastic, paperboard) uses domestic producer prices, since it is typically sourced or co-packed domestically; beauty formulation stays on the domestic toilet-preparation index because BLS discontinued the cosmetics import index in 2022. Inbound ocean and truckload freight and last-mile parcel complete the stack. Weights approximate the landed-cost mix of a $20–150M DTC brand in that category. Series are published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (freight carried via FRED), indexed to January 2020 = 100.

Tariffs. Import price indexes exclude tariffs, so the headline "with tariffs" figure adds an Eightx estimate of the effective incremental US import duty on each category's imported inputs under the 2025–26 reciprocal-tariff and Section 232 regime. Treat it as a scenario, not a measured statistic; the before-tariff index is the underlying data, and the calculator's tariff toggle switches between them.

Where it's heading. The index is monthly and lags by weeks; leading inputs don't. Each category's forward read takes the trailing-3-month move in the indicators that lead its costs — the US dollar, crude oil, natural gas, diesel, cotton and aluminum — weights them by exposure, and sums them into a direction for the coming quarter. It's a directional nowcast from free FRED series, not a backtested forecast.

This is a directional cost-pressure gauge, not a per-brand COGS figure: your real input mix, sourcing countries, contracts and hedges differ. For where these costs actually land company-by-company, see the Public DTC Leaderboard's COGS board, the benchmark report, or the editorial DTC Cost-of-Goods analysis. Need help acting on it? See how we work with DTC brands. Powered by hub.eightx.co.