Lighting imports (HS 9405): the 2026 China tariff map

If you sell lighting, the most expensive line on your cost sheet in 2026 is not the factory quote. It is the tariff column your SKU lands in. US imports of lamps and lighting fittings (HS 9405, the customs heading that covers chandeliers, luminaires, LED fixtures, and their parts) were $9.17B in 2024, and the origin map underneath that number is moving fast. China is still on top, but it is bleeding share to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mexico, and the reason is almost entirely the duty stack. This post maps where the lighting Americans buy actually comes from, what the 2026 tariff math looks like by origin, and how to read your own landed cost before you re-source anything.

The headline map: who actually makes the lighting Americans buy

Start with the picture, because most operators carry a mental model that is two or three years out of date. In 2024, China was the single largest origin of US lighting imports at 36.7%, worth $3.36B. That still makes it number one. But it no longer means China dominates the way it did when it held nearly half the market.

Mexico is the comfortable number two at 18.4% ($1.69B), propped up by USMCA and cross-border assembly. Then the picture gets interesting: Canada is a quiet number three at 8.4% ($0.77B), a fact that surprises almost everyone, driven by commercial and architectural fixtures. Vietnam matches Canada at 8.4% ($0.77B), and Cambodia sits right behind at 8.2% ($0.75B). Add Vietnam and Cambodia together and they hit 16.6% combined, which is within a whisker of Mexico and well clear of any single European or other Asian source.

The table below has the ranked detail, value and share, all the way down to the long tail.

Rank	Origin	2024 imports (USD m)	Share of HS 9405
1	China	3,363.0	36.7%
2	Mexico	1,688.6	18.4%
3	Canada	773.6	8.4%
4	Vietnam	767.4	8.4%
5	Cambodia	748.5	8.2%
6	Thailand	343.7	3.7%
7	Malaysia	169.1	1.8%
8	India	166.8	1.8%
9	Italy	159.2	1.7%
10	Germany	138.3	1.5%
	Taiwan	134.2	1.5%
	All others	716.0	7.8%
	Total all countries	9,167.9	100.0%

When I talk to founders running a lighting brand this size, the thing they keep getting wrong is treating "China" and "imported" as synonyms. They are not, and the gap between those two ideas is where the 2026 margin story lives.

The two-year China-minus shift, in customs data not forecasts

The interesting part is not the snapshot. It is the trajectory. China did not just slip a point or two. It went from 46.1% of the heading in 2022 to 36.7% in 2024, a 9.4-point drop in 24 months. In dollar terms that is a fall from $5.03B to $3.36B, roughly $1.67B of US lighting business that walked off China's books.

That money did not vanish. The category shrank overall, from $10.92B in 2022 to $9.17B in 2024, so some of it was lost demand. But most of the China loss showed up somewhere else. Vietnam roughly doubled, from 5.0% to 8.4% of the heading. Cambodia climbed from 6.8% to 8.2%, an outsized share for a country its size. Mexico barely moved on a percentage basis (18.1% to 18.4%) but held its dollars while the pie was shrinking, which is its own kind of win.

This matters because it is realized customs data, not a forecast or a survey. The shift already happened. When operators tell us they are "thinking about" diversifying away from China, the honest framing is that the market already voted, and the brands still 100% on China are now the outliers carrying the most policy risk on the SKU.

The 2026 tariff stack: why the China column changes the math

Here is the part that actually drives the map. A Chinese-made fixture in 2026 carries a stack of duties, not a single rate. The pieces are: base MFN duty (Most Favored Nation, the standard Column 1 rate, about 3.9% on a common LED line like 9405.11.40), plus Section 301 (the China-specific tariff, 25% on covered List 3 lines), plus a contested 20% IEEPA layer (the "fentanyl" tariff applied under emergency-powers authority).

Stack those and you get roughly 48.9% on a Chinese fixture. But be careful with that number, because the top layer is live in court. One read of mid-2026 rulings has the IEEPA tariffs struck down in late February 2026, with a 10% Section 122 surcharge that replaced them itself ruled unlawful in May but still being collected pending appeal. Another read treats the 20% IEEPA layer as still in force with reciprocal tariffs suspended into November 2026. The honest answer for planning is a range: about 29% if only MFN plus Section 301 survive, up to about 49% with the IEEPA layer intact.

Origin	Base MFN	Section 301	Extra layer	Est. total duty	Duty on $10 FOB
China	3.9%	25%	0% to 20% (contested IEEPA)	~29% to 49%	$2.89 to $4.89
Vietnam	3.9%	0%	~10% to 20% reciprocal	~14% to 24%	$1.40 to $2.40
Cambodia	3.9%	0%	~19% to 20% reciprocal	~23% to 24%	$2.30 to $2.40
Mexico (USMCA-qualifying)	0%	0%	0%	~0%	$0.00
Mexico (non-qualifying)	3.9%	0%	~10% Sec 122	~14%	$1.40

The point is not the precise decimal. It is the spread. A USMCA-qualifying Mexican fixture lands near zero duty while the same fixture out of China carries somewhere between $2.89 and $4.89 of duty per $10 of FOB value. That is the gap rewriting the origin map, and it is also why "where you make it" now outweighs "what it costs to make."

It is an LED story: where the value and the exposure concentrate

Zoom into the heading and the exposure is not spread evenly. It concentrates in LED. HS 9405.11 (LED chandeliers and ceiling and wall fittings) alone is $3.14B, a full 34.2% of the entire heading. Add 9405.42 (other electric LED luminaires) at $2.06B and 22.4%, and LED fixtures are 56.6% of all US lighting imports.

Why this matters for your business: if your catalog skews toward LED chandeliers and luminaires, which for most modern lighting DTC brands it does, you are sitting squarely in the sub-codes that carry both the most import volume and the heaviest China tariff math. The non-electrical and glass-parts lines (9405.50, 9405.91) are rounding errors by comparison. So the first move in any tariff exposure audit is to pull your own SKUs' 10-digit HTS codes and see how much of your landed cost sits in 9405.11 and 9405.42. That is where a 20-point swing in a duty column actually moves your P&L.

When we've struggled with this on the operator side, what worked was mapping revenue (not unit count) to HTS code, because a brand can have 80% of its SKUs in low-exposure parts lines and still have 80% of its revenue riding on two high-tariff LED codes.

Are factories eating the tariff? The price-index signal

There is one piece of good news buried in the data. Chinese factories are partially absorbing the tariff by cutting their export prices. The US import price index for Chinese electric lighting equipment (FRED series COCHNZ3351) fell from about 102.9 in early 2024 to about 97.9 by early 2026, roughly a 4.9% decline. In a market where input costs are generally rising, a falling import price index for one origin is a clear signal that exporters are trimming FOB to defend volume.

Read that honestly, though. A 4.9% FOB cut against a 29% to 49% duty stack is a softener, not a rescue. If your Chinese supplier quietly drops their price 5%, that is real money, but it offsets only a sliver of the tariff. The pattern we see again and again is operators mistaking a supplier price cut for the problem going away. It is not. It is the supplier trying to keep your order while the duty column does the real damage downstream at customs.

The factory quote is the start of the conversation in 2026, not the end of it. The tariff column is what actually separates China, Vietnam, and Mexico, and the spread is wide enough to flip a SKU from profitable to underwater on origin alone. Where you make the fixture now matters more than what it costs to make.

The operator playbook: how to read your own origin and landed cost

So what do you actually do this week. Four moves.

First, pull your real origin mix. Not what you think it is, what your commercial invoices say. Most brands discover their "diversified" supply chain is still 70% China once you weight by revenue.

Second, classify your SKUs to the 10-digit HTS code and map each to its duty stack. The 3.9% MFN rate is a common LED line, but it is not universal across 9405; some lines are free, some differ. Do not generalize one rate across the catalog.

Third, model the landed cost as a range, not a point. Use the table above as a template: FOB, plus freight and insurance, plus brokerage, plus duty on customs value, with the China duty held as a 29% to 49% band until the IEEPA litigation settles. A landed cost you can defend in a board meeting is a range with a stated assumption, not a single brittle number.

Fourth, dual-source the SKUs where the math is worst. For most brands at this size, the standard 2026 hedge is one China supplier plus one qualified alternative in Vietnam or a genuinely USMCA-qualifying Mexican source. The Mexican option only pays off if the fixture clears USMCA rules of origin, which turn on where value is added, so get that analysis done before you assume the 0% column. For more on how tariff exposure threads through your whole import P&L, see our electronics import tariff map for 2026, and for the cross-category view of where this is hitting hardest, the DTC tariff exposure index 2026. If you want help turning this into a defensible landed-cost model, that is exactly what our interim CFO services are built for.

Sources and methodology

All HS 9405 import figures are from the US Census Bureau, imports for consumption (customs value), pulled via the Census international trade imports endpoint. The variable is CON_VAL_YR (cumulative customs value) at month 12 for full-year totals: time=2024-12 for 2024 and time=2022-12 for 2022. The heading total uses country code Total All Countries, which returns $9,167,853,522 for 2024. Per-country values were pulled one country code at a time, because the endpoint does not return an all-country breakdown in a single call, and the "all others" line is computed as the total minus the named countries.

Sub-heading detail was pulled per 6-digit line (9405.11, 9405.42, 9405.19, 9405.41, 9405.99, 9405.50, 9405.91). Note the current HS nomenclature is LED-aware: the older 9405.10, 9405.20, and 9405.40 lines return empty, and the current 9405.11, 9405.41, and 9405.42 structure is the correct one for 2024 data.

Tariff figures are triangulated rather than taken from a single source. The base MFN rate (about 3.9% on 9405.11.40) is from the USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule Column 1 general rate. Section 301 (25% on covered China lines) is from USTR List 3 actions. The 20% IEEPA layer is from White House emergency-powers actions. These rates vary by 10-digit HTS code, so the 3.9% and the totals here are illustrative for a common covered LED line and should not be generalized to every SKU.

The IEEPA layer is presented as contested on purpose. As of mid-2026, one source set has IEEPA tariffs struck down in late February 2026 with a replacement 10% Section 122 surcharge ruled unlawful in May 2026 but still collected pending appeal; another treats the 20% IEEPA layer as still applying with reciprocal tariffs suspended into November 2026. Because the legal status is unresolved, the China stack is published as a 29% to 49% range rather than a single settled figure, and the Vietnam and Cambodia reciprocal rows are similarly the most volatile lines in the tariff table.

The price-absorption signal is FRED series COCHNZ3351 (BLS Import Price Index by Origin for Chinese electric lighting equipment manufacturing, Index Jun 2012=100, not seasonally adjusted, monthly), pulled 2022-01 through 2026-04. One month (2025-10) is suppressed in the series. For directional corroboration only, OEC World's 2025 light-fixtures profile shows the same China-down, Vietnam-and-Cambodia-up direction, though its narrower "light fixtures" definition and 2025 basis produce different absolute numbers; all headline figures here are anchored on the Census pulls, not OEC.

Frequently asked questions

where does the us actually import most of its lighting and lamps from in 2026?

China is still the single largest origin at 36.7% of HS 9405 imports in 2024, but Mexico (18.4%) plus Vietnam and Cambodia (16.6% combined) now make up more of the market than China does. Canada is a quiet number three at 8.4%.

what is the total tariff on lighting fixtures imported from china right now?

Roughly 29% to 49%, depending on which layers survive court challenge. The durable core is about 3.9% base MFN plus 25% Section 301. An additional 20% IEEPA layer pushes it near 49%, but that layer is legally contested as of mid-2026, so model it as a range.

how much has china's share of us lighting imports actually dropped?

From 46.1% in 2022 to 36.7% in 2024, a 9.4-point fall. In dollars that is about $1.67B of lighting business that moved off China in two years, mostly to Vietnam and Cambodia while Mexico held steady.

is it cheaper to source lighting from vietnam or mexico than china after tariffs?

Usually yes on tariff alone. A USMCA-qualifying Mexican fixture can land near 0% duty, and Vietnam's reciprocal layer (roughly 10% to 20%) still sits below China's stack. Run your own FOB and freight numbers, because the factory price gap can offset some of the tariff gap.

which hs 9405 sub-codes carry the most china import exposure for my brand?

LED lines. 9405.11 (LED chandeliers and ceiling/wall fittings) is 34.2% of the heading and 9405.42 (other LED luminaires) adds 22.4%. If your catalog is LED-heavy, those are the codes carrying the worst tariff math.

does usmca really get me to 0% duty on lighting made in mexico?

Only if the fixture actually qualifies under USMCA rules of origin, which turn on where the value is added, not just final assembly. A fixture snapped together in Mexico from fully Chinese sub-assemblies may not qualify. Get the rules-of-origin analysis done before you assume 0%.

why are chinese lighting factories lowering their prices in 2026?

To partially absorb the tariff. The US import price index for Chinese electric lighting equipment fell about 4.9% from early 2024 to early 2026 (FRED COCHNZ3351). That softens the landed-cost hit but does not erase a 29% to 49% stack.

should i dual-source my lighting so i'm not 100% exposed to one country's tariffs?

For most brands at this size, yes. The pattern we see again and again is that single-country exposure turns a tariff headline into an overnight margin event. One China supplier plus one qualified alternative in Vietnam or Mexico is the standard hedge in 2026.