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Holiday Demand Predictor

Predict your Nov-Dec revenue, inventory cost to pre-position, and the cash position you need by October 31. Built on 10 years of US Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey data, 2016-2025, broken out by NAICS retail category.

Most operators plan Q4 by feel: last year's number, plus a YoY growth assumption, against a single "we usually do 30% of revenue in Nov-Dec" multiplier. That multiplier is wrong because it is not your number. Apparel averages a 48% lift over the Jan-Oct baseline. Grocery averages 7%. The 7x category spread means a one-multiplier plan over-stocks low-lift categories and under-stocks the high-lift ones.

This calculator uses 10 years of Census data to anchor your forecast to your actual category. Enter your trailing 12-month revenue, pick your NAICS category, set your expected YoY growth, and see predicted Nov-Dec revenue, landed inventory cost, working-capital impact, and the cash position you need by October 31.

How to use it: Enter your inputs at left. Results update instantly at right, including a benchmark check showing whether your plan is within your category's 10-year range and a "your category vs the alternative" gut-check that surfaces the cost of being in a low-lift category. Read the full methodology in our companion blog post.

Your Numbers

All fields update results in real time.

Net of returns and discounts
$
Pick the closest match for your storefront
Negative numbers allowed if you are forecasting a contraction
%
Used to convert revenue to landed inventory cost. Default 40%.
%

Your Q4 plan, anchored to the 10-year benchmark

Predicted Nov-Dec revenue
$1,305,250
Nov ~$548,205 + Dec ~$757,045 (42/58 split)
Inventory at cost to pre-position by mid-October
$783,150
Assuming 60% landed cost (40% gross margin)
Working capital tied up in inventory
$783,150
60-day cash conversion cycle
Cash position needed on Oct 31
$978,938
Inventory cost + 15% buffer for ad spend, shipping, chargebacks
Talk to a CFO about your Q4 plan

Frequently Asked Questions

What Q4 lift should an apparel brand plan for?

Apparel stores have averaged a 48.1% lift in Nov-Dec sales over their Jan-Oct baseline across 2016-2025 (US Census MRTS, NAICS 448). The range outside the 2020 COVID year was 42% to 49%. If you are planning materially above 49%, you are forecasting above any non-COVID year in the last decade.

Why has Q4 ecommerce lift compressed?

Pure ecommerce (NAICS 4541) ran a 45% Q4 lift in 2017 and 27.5% in 2025. As ecommerce baseline sales grew across all 12 months, the holiday peak became relatively smaller. Plan to the 3-year average of 28% to 29%, not the 10-year average of 35%.

How do I calculate the cash I need by October 31?

Multiply your TTM revenue by your category's Nov-Dec share of annual sales to get the prior-year baseline. Grow that by your expected YoY rate. Multiply by your cost-of-goods percentage to get landed inventory cost. Add a 15% buffer for ad spend, shipping surge, and chargebacks. The result is the cash position you need available on October 31.

Next Step

Want a CFO to pressure-test your Q4 plan against your actuals?

The calculator gives you the category benchmark. A fractional CFO compares it to your real Shopify and ad data, your supplier payment calendar, and your credit facilities. Book a 30-minute call before you place your Q4 inventory order.

Talk to a CFO